I hope you’re having a good Easter if you observe. If you don’t observe, then I hope this will be a relaxing Sunday for you. A couple of years ago, I did a post on handicapping the US TV Olympic bids and it was very well researched using New York Times and Sports Illustrated articles. Unfortunately in the transition from Blogger to this self-hosted WordPress site, I lost it so I can’t link to it or show it to you. But one thing I can do is rehandicap the bids again. Back then, I thought NBC, Fox and ESPN would be players with CBS/Turner a darkhorse. We now know that NBC, Fox and ESPN will be players for the Olympics when the bids are announced in mid-June. I’ll give my prediction on which network I think will win plus some other Sunday thoughts.
The Olympic US TV Rights: Who Will Win Them?
This announcement has been delayed several times over the last couple of years. The International Olympic Committee was hoping to grant the rights to one of the US TV networks last year, but with the worldwide economy at a downturn, the IOC decided to wait until this year to see if the advertising market would recover. It seems it has so the IOC is ready to award the winning US network rights to at least the 2014 & 2016 Olympics and possibly the ’18 & ’20 Games.
We know that NBC, ESPN and Fox are interested. We know that ESPN is making a real push for its bid and so is Fox. Let’s take a look at the players and how they could shape up as broadcasters for the Olympics.
NBCUniversal: NBC is the incumbent having aired every Summer Olympics dating back to 1988 and every Winter Olympiad since 2002. It has a formula of airing the games, tape delayed and showcasing big events for primetime, packaging them for casual viewers, treating them as reality TV. We know how Division Emperor Dick Ebersol loves the Olympics and wants cement his legacy by getting the ’14 & ’16 Games. He desperately wants to keep his record with the Games intact. There are rumors that if the International Olympic Committee awards the Olympics to ESPN or Fox, he’ll retire. Not sure about that, but that’s what people saying.
However last Monday, a report surfaced in the New York Post that there’s a power struggle within the walls of NBCUniversal and the Comcast hierarchy over the spending for the bid. Let’s consider the source. The New York Post is owned by News Corp. which also owns Fox which is also bidding for the games. Is this a coincidence? Most likely, but this is also the same paper which seemed to go out of its way to report “sources” of disharmony within MSNBC when Keith Olbermannn was employed at the network and of course, the Post and Fox News Channel are corporate siblings. Not saying there’s a conspiracy, but asides from websites (like mine) citing and linking to the article, I have not seen other news outlets report this. So again, consider the source.
For NBC, it has used multiple cable networks to air the games (Bravo, CNBC, MSNBC, USA, Oxygen) to compliment its coverage as well as NBCOlympics.com. Now that the merger with Comcast is complete, NBC can tap Versus and its other networks to air events (E!, G4). There’s an infrastructure and familiarity between NBC and the International Olympic Committee and despite a very vocal audience that wants to see events live, it appears influential members on the IOC like how NBCUniversal airs the games here. Would I like to see everything live? Yes. Do I hate repackaging and inserting features? Yes and yes, but from the ratings, it works. People watch. NBC will use its formula again in London next year with the five hour time difference.
If the reports of a power struggle within NBCUniversal are true and Comcast doesn’t want to break the bank on the Olympics bid, then it makes everything wide open for another network to come in. But I think the IOC likes Dick Ebersol and as long as he’s with NBCUniversal, there’s always a chance that the Games will remain there.
Odds of NBCUniversal keeping the Olympics: 2-1.
ESPN: This is the wild buffalo in the room. It has a chance to upset the status quo and bring some new blood and ideas to the Games. We saw how ESPN did last year with the World Cup in South Africa. Fears that Chris Berman and Stuart Scott would be used were eased when the network announced a solid hosting corps of Chris Fowler, Bob Ley and Mike Tirico. If ESPN won the Olympics, I can see these three being the main hosts along with Robin Roberts, the co-host of Good Morning America and a former ESPN’er, Hannah Storm (she has Olympic hosting experience from NBC) and maybe even Linda Cohn.
For networks, ESPN can tap ABC, ABC Family, ESPN2, ESPNews, ESPNU, ESPN 3D and even the Disney Channel for overspill events. ESPN can use ESPN3.com for online events. Of the two challengers to NBCUniversal, ESPN has the best infrastructure in place to air the Games. As we’ve heard, ESPN would not tape delay the events, they would show them live as they happened. If this were to happen, I would be a very happy person.
If Comcast were to decide not to break the bank, ESPN could probably step in and take a stranglehold on the Olympics. It probably wouldn’t let go for a very long time so NBC and Fox also have to take that into consideration. And let’s not forget that ESPN’s parent company, Disney has very deep pockets and would love to take a signature event away from NBC.
Odds of ESPN winning the Olympics: 5-1
Fox: This is the big mystery and a wild card. Owner Rupert Murdoch has won Olympic TV rights for 2014/16 in Italy and Turkey and would love to parlay that here in the United States. Fox’s networks to air the games here would most likely depend heavily on Fox, Fox News Channel and FX with the Fox Sports Net affiliates across the country playing a role as well. Fox can also use its FoxSports.com site for streaming events. However, it would in essence have to start from scratch in airing international events. While Fox has done a good job with the UEFA Champions League on Fox Soccer Channel, it really doesn’t use its own announcers, utilizing World TV feeds.
As far as hosts and announcers, Fox would probably have to create a staff. This is similar to when CBS won the bid for the 1992 and 1994 Winter Olympics, it had to tap into ABC for announcers, but did have in-house hosts like Jim Nantz, Greg Gumbel, Pat O’Brien and Andrea Joyce.
While Fox has some deep pockets for this bid and I think it’s serious about getting the Olympics, I don’t see them winning.
Odds of Fox winning the Olympics: 20-1
The Pac 12 Bidding Comes To A Head
Last week in the Sunday Thoughts, I handicapped the Pac 12 bidding and felt NBC/Comcast was the favorite to win the bids. In the San Jose Mercury News, Jon Wilner reported that Pac 12 Commissioner Larry Scott had asked for $300 million/year from Fox to essentially give it all of the conference’s media rights lock, stock and barrel with a promise not to start its own TV network.
I thought that was crazy and Fox naturally rejected the offer as it’s an exorbitant price to pay. While college sports media rights are most likely underpriced with all of the splintering of conferences and movement by teams, asking for $300 million is a bit much. And probably knowing that Fox would turn down the offer, it opened up open bidding on the rights which is what Scott wanted in the first place.
I’m still thinking NBC will get a package of games to air at 3:30 p.m. with a few primetime games thrown in to make a doubleheader with Notre Dame football, Versus/NBC Sports Net (or whatever its new name is going to be) gets the bulk of the games with a Thursday night game and Saturday doubleheaders.
But Larry Scott has to be careful not to overplay his hand or he might find one player at the table.
MLB Should Scrap The Fan Cave
Back in February, Major League Baseball announced it would give two fans the opportunity to watch every single regular season game in a specially made apartment filled with TV’s, food and computers. After getting thousands of applications and videos from across the country, MLB selected two men, one from New York and the other from Baltimore to take part in this social experiment. Through it all, they would become part of a web reality series, have guest spots on MLB Network to talk about their experiences, write blog posts and meet special guests throughout their time in the Fan Cave.
On paper, this sounded like a great idea and I even thought about applying, but decided against it. After seeing the first few weeks, I think MLB should end this now and rethink the idea for next season. It’s not working.
While we’ve seen players visit and some celebrities make appearances for photo opportunities, the Fan Cave is a waste of a great idea. The execution is bad and the men chosen through no fault of their own were the wrong ones chosen for this. One’s an actor who probably is using the Fan Cave as a stepping stone for bigger fame and the other has dabbled in sports broadcasting and acting as well. I’m not questioning whether they’re diehard fans because they appear to be. I have no problem with that. But my problem is that MLB chose two white guys to be in the Fan Cave.
Why not make the dynamic more interesting by bringing in two women in addition to the two men? And why not show some diversity by bringing in people of color, African Americans, Hispanics, Asians? Again, I’m not questioning whether the two men, Mike O’Hara and Ryan Wagner are legitimate fans. They appear to be, but I would have liked to have seen two women as a balance or even one Caucasian and one minority. I’m not sure about the quality of applicants because I was not in the selection process, but this just gives the appearance that the deck was stacked towards two white males.
When the Fan Cave opened, a Victoria’s Secret model paid a visit and I’m sure she has a great baseball background. Not that I have anything wrong with Victoria’s Secret models, I even have the Victoria’s Secret app on my iPad, but this tie-in excludes women who are hardcore fans of baseball.
Julie DiCaro at Aerys Sports had a very good article on the Fan Cave saying it excludes a good section of MLB’s fanbase.
Since I’ve joined Twitter, I’ve found women who are not just sports fans, but very knowledgeable on baseball and can cite history on their teams better than I can on the Red Sox. These are not “Pink Hat” fans who jump on the bandwagon because it’s fashionable. These are women who know the minutiae of baseball, take part in Fantasy leagues, understand what’s WHIP and SLG and live and die with their teams. Not only have I exchanged tweets, but I’ve met them personally. And if you call them a “Pink Hat”, you’ll get their wrath. But I digress.
MLB really dropped the ball on the Fan Cave and if it doesn’t want to scrap the idea now, then take what’s been written and try to improve on it next year by bringing in knowledgeable women and increasing the diversity. There a lot of good things about the game, the Fan Cave is not one of them.
There are your Sunday Thoughts for Easter. Enjoy your day.
