Over/Under markets: The profit-making guide

It would be fair to say that the gambling industry has come on significantly over the last few decades. While betting shops still line the high-streets, and seemingly perform very well, the rise of online betting has opened up a wealth of opportunities.

These opportunities are heightened due to the sheer amount of markets that bookies are now able to offer. Gone are the days when punters could just back a win, loss or draw. Now, everything goes, and for the purposes of today we are going to look at the over/under markets.

Put simply, this involves a certain amount of goals being scored within a game for your win to be triggered. For example, if you were to bet on ‘Over 1.5 goals’, if the game in question brought two goals or more you would be in the money. It goes without saying that the more goals you gamble on, the better the odds tend to be.

However, there are right and wrong ways to profit from these markets. Today’s post will outline some key tips to help you along.

Do the math: find out the average goals per game

As you’ll find out through today’s guide, a lot about profiting from the over/under markets is math. Fortunately, this first section is relatively easy to get your head around and involves simply counting how many goals are scored by the teams who are participating in your match of choice. It is then a case of calculating the average goals that this team scores per game, over the course of a season.

Continue doing the math: calculate your probabilities

As you can see, the previous step was relatively straightforward. It’s this next one where things get a little more complicated and we will now point you in the direction of Poisson distribution.

Put simply, football is a random game. It means that there is no exact science in predicting how many goals are going to be scored by a team per game, and probabilities therefore must be calculated.

This is where Poisson distribution comes in. Through this model, you will be able to predict the likelihood of a team scoring ‘x’ amount of goals, based on their average. You need to find out these probabilities for both teams in the match, for various numbers of goals. You might find that Team A has a 46% chance of scoring one goal, a 39% chance of scoring twice and so on.

Then, it’s a case of adding both teams’ probabilities together. For example, if you are betting on an under 2.5 goals bet, there are six possible scores which will qualify your bet for a win: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2. Based on these score lines, you then need to pick each one and find out the probability of each team scoring their required number of goals. For each score line, multiply these probabilities together.

In the case of the above, you’ll be left with six different probabilities for each score line. By adding these together, you can understand the probability of the match ended in less than 2.5 goals.

Understand the odds: is this a worthwhile market to bet on?

Finally, it’s onto the odds. Even after calculating all of the above, it might not be worthwhile pursuing. After all, you are never going to be met with a 100% chance of winning your bet. However, by using theodds that the bookmaker has provided you can calculate your potential winnings and develop a more logical strategy when it comes to placing your bets. A tool like the https://thebetcalculator.com/ can really come to your assistance here as it will calculate the potential winnings and help you understand exactly how much will be returned should you win the bet.

It’s worth mentioning that you won’t win all of these bets, but the point is trying to use the odds to your advantage so you can bet efficiently. This might mean shopping around various bookmakers and finding the best odds, just to provide yourself with a value bet.

Marcelo Villa

About Marcelo Villa

Marcelo is an associate editor at The Sports Daily, and has covered the San Diego Chargers for Bleacher Report. He also writes for Sportsdirect Inc.